Gold Falls on Ceasefire Expiration as Central Banks Record Strongest Q2 Buying

The price of gold has fallen to $4,390.51 and silver to $64.74 as five market forces converge on a nine-day window.

One of these factors is the expiration of the Iran ceasefire, which Trump declined to extend. As a result, oil prices have risen toward $90 and the 30-year Treasury traded above 5.31%, its highest level since 2007.

The mechanism behind gold's fall explains why it didn't rise: higher oil raises inflation expectations, strengthening the case for Fed rate hikes, which lift the dollar and pressure gold.

The FOMC minutes drop tomorrow, and what they reveal will be crucial. If the minutes show that three dissenters were a near-majority rather than a fringe, September becomes a live meeting again, and gold faces renewed pressure.