Gold Flips Back to Long Trend as Price Surpasses $4,434
Gold's parabolic short trend has finally flipped back to long, and the price has provisionally eclipsed $4,434. This marks a significant milestone after 21 laborious weeks of decline. The weekly trading range for gold is now 230 points, with a daily trading range of 96 points.
The recent war between the US and Iran has had a mixed impact on gold prices. When the conflict was on, gold descended, but when it was off, gold ascended. Despite this volatility, analysts predict that gold will continue to rise, at least for another three-to-four weeks.
Looking at history, the average maximum gain of gold during its last 10 weekly parabolic long trends is 14.3%. However, if we take the median maximum gain, which is 11.9%, then the target price would be around $4,959. This assumes a conservative approach and takes into account the recent correction in prices.
Meanwhile, silver has also settled at $64.83, but may face structural resistance in the 72-90 zone. The gold-to-silver ratio is currently 68.4x, which is relatively close to its evolving mean of 69.2x. Both precious metals are trading above their respective fair values, but this can last for years or even decades before prices revert.
The Economic Barometer, which has historically led the S&P 500, is now in decline. This has been exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent injection of $7 trillion into the US money supply. As a result, the positive correlation between the baro and S&P has returned, but it's unclear when the S&P will realize its overvaluation.
Gold's all-time intra-day high is $5,586 (29 January 2026), while its closing high is $4,411 (28 January 2026). The trading resistance zone for gold is between 4488 and 4450, while the support zone is between 4406 and 4322.