Gold Hits New Low After Warsh Remarks Spark Hike Odds Surge

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's remarks at Jackson Hole triggered a one-day decline of more than 3% in spot gold, which fell to $4,436.04/oz on Aug. 31, 2026, its lowest since Aug. 19.

The 60% probability of a September hike rose from about 36% after Warsh signaled further tightening if inflation does not move toward 2%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Despite this volatility, gold remained up more than 10% in August as US Treasury bond buybacks supported debasement demand and lifted bullion to a three-month high of $4,696.18/oz.

Bar and coin demand reached a 12-year high in 2025, accounting for about 25% of global gold demand, according to data published on Aug. 19, showing that physical accumulation remained strong.