Gold Holds Key Support Zone After Warsh's Hawkish Jackson Hole Speech

Gold futures held their ground on Monday despite an initial sharp selloff in reaction to Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's perceived hawkish speech at Jackson Hole. The metal plummeted by $150, a move clearly visible on hourly charts that showed gold futures sliding from $4,657 at 10:00 PM ET down to $4,495 over the next four hours.

However, gold quickly stabilized above its key support zone formed by a historical area of support and resistance dating back to the end of 2025 at $4,474. This level aligns closely with both the simple 100-day moving average ($4,468) and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement ($4,474), which is based on gold's recent advance from its lows around $4,000 to recent highs above $4,700.

Warsh's speech did not have the effect of lowering longer-term securities, as the 30-year U.S. government bond continued its ascent instead and now sits within 0.10% of levels last seen in June 2007. This has led some to suggest that something sturdier than a single speech is underpinning gold's resilience.

Historically, elevated long-term yields, restless bond markets, and uncertainty over policymakers' responses have created fertile ground for gold as a hedge against both inflation and financial instability. As long as the $4,468, $4,474 zone holds, gold's path of least resistance remains higher, and the very bond market stress that briefly rattled it on Friday may end up being its strongest ally.