Gold Market Sends Mixed Signals as LBMA Raises Year-End Target

The gold market is sending mixed signals as the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) has raised its year-end target to $4,500 per ounce. This reflects a collective acknowledgment that the metal continues to outperform expectations.

However, physical demand in China's capital is drying up, with investment bar buyers in Beijing down roughly 60 percent. This tension between a bullish institutional outlook and softening retail appetite is now the defining feature of a market that has spent months consolidating after a spectacular run.

The LBMA's updated survey, based on input from 16 leading precious metals experts, now pencils in an average gold price of $4,500 by the close of 2026. This marks a meaningful upward revision from where forecasts stood at the start of the year.

Despite this consensus, there is considerable disagreement among major international banks. Commerzbank now sees $4,800 by year-end 2026, while Citi is more cautious, calling for $4,300 on a zero-to-three-month horizon. JPMorgan holds firm at an average of $5,243 for the year.