Gold May Reach $5,600 by End-2026: Report
A new report from Monarch PMS has predicted potential prices for gold and silver by the end of 2026. The bull case, which is assigned a 25% probability, sees gold reaching $5,000-$5,600 per ounce and silver at $95-$120 per ounce.
The bull case scenario assumes weakness in the labour market, forcing the Fed to ease repo rates and real yields roll over. Additionally, institutional reallocation into precious metals must resume and physical tightness in silver should return for the bull case to materialise.
The base case, with a 55% probability, predicts gold will trade at $4,300-$4,700 per ounce and silver at $70-$85 per ounce by end-2026. This scenario assumes the US Federal Reserve holds rates through September, energy prices normalise, real yields plateau, and central banks maintain purchases of around 250 tonnes a quarter.
The bear case, with a 20% probability, sees gold at $3,400-$3,900 per ounce and silver at $45-$55 per ounce if the Fed delivers a rate hike in September, oil falls further, and disinflation turns into demand weakness.