Gold Miners Finally Catch Up with Rising Gold Prices

The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) has surged 18% in the past month and 53% over the last year, hitting a decade-high of around $88. This price movement comes as gold breaks through the $4,400 mark.

Newmont posted a record $2.2 billion in Q2 free cash flow and Agnico generated $1.3 billion, both beating their AISC guidance. Historically, miners have leveraged gold moves roughly two-to-one, but a pullback to $4,000 gold alongside WTI above $95 would quickly erase the margin expansion story.

The 10-year Treasury yield sits at 4.68%, in the 96th percentile of its trailing 12-month range and up from a February low of 3.97%. Gold pushing through $4,400 in the face of that headwind tells you central bank buying and dollar debasement themes are overriding the traditional rate model.