Gold Nears $4,500 on Softer Labor-Market Signals and Lower Yields

Gold prices are nearing $4,500 an ounce as softer labor-market signals and lower Treasury yields ease pressure on rates. Spot gold is trading at $4,488.80 an ounce, up 2.28%, while spot silver is at $66.550, up 1.88%. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said inflation remains above the Fed's target but would support holding rates steady if disinflation continues in upcoming data.

The latest positioning suggests a roughly 60% to 65% chance of a September rate hike, down from highs reached during this week's oil-and-yield shock. The 10-year Treasury yield is trading near 4.77%, below Wednesday's peak, and the two-year yield has eased to about 4.36%. Gold and silver are rebounding as relief candidates after a sharp rates-driven selloff.

The Strait of Hormuz remains a key geopolitical channel into oil prices and inflation expectations. Iran fired on Kuwait in retaliation for US strikes earlier this week, extending the oil rally and adding to inflation pressure. Brent crude rose to around $97.33 a barrel, while WTI climbed to about $92.92.

For gold, the setup remains conflicted: Gulf escalation supports defensive demand, but higher crude raises inflation risk, keeping Fed-hike expectations alive and limiting the benefit of lower yields.