Gold Price Forecasts Fall Amid Central Bank Buying Expectations

A recent Reuters poll of 29 analysts and traders has cut their gold price forecasts for the first time since late 2023, but central bank buying is expected to cushion the retreat.

The median gold forecast for 2026 stands at $4,509 per troy ounce, down from $4,916 estimated three months ago. This marks the first time forecasts have been trimmed in 11 quarters.

Gold hit a record $5,595 an ounce in January before retreating sharply in the second quarter, its worst since 2013, as the Iran war stoked energy inflation and rate-hike expectations. Spot gold has fallen about 22% since the war began.

Analysts say the core structural drivers for gold, such as geopolitical tensions, government debt, and currency debasement, remain intact. 'Barring short-term noise, we think the structural foundation of the gold rally has not changed,' said Standard Chartered analyst Suki Cooper.