Gold Price Forecasts Trimmed as Fed Policy Trumps Central Bank Buying
Analysts have trimmed their gold price forecasts for 2026 due to concerns over Federal Reserve policy, despite central banks led by China and Poland buying a record amount of gold.
The London Bullion Market Association's mid-year survey showed the average year-end forecast among 16 analysts stood at $4,500 per ounce, down from previous highs. Ten analysts pointed to the Fed's response to US inflation data as their primary concern.
Central banks purchased a net 289 tonnes of gold in the second quarter of 2026, the strongest second quarter on record, with Poland and China leading the buying spree. The People's Bank of China has been accumulating gold for 21 consecutive months, with its reserves reaching 76.08 million ounces by the end of July.
Wall Street banks remain broadly constructive, with Goldman Sachs estimating that a 20-tonne increase in China's average monthly sovereign gold purchases since Russia's central bank reserves were frozen in 2022 accounted for more than a 20 percent increase in gold prices.