Gold Price Rally Possible as CPM Group's Christian Sees Support for Metals
According to CPM Group's Jeffrey Christian, gold prices are currently trading near $4,028 after dipping below $4,000 earlier in July. In a recent presentation, Christian examined the gold price outlook and provided an update on the silver market. He noted that if gold moves above its current downward trendline, it could trigger a brief rally toward $4,200, while a drop below $4,000 might lead to another steep decline.
Christian also reviewed the August COMEX gold futures contract and observed that open interest decreased from 19.3 million ounces to 13.9 million ounces as traders shifted positions into October and December. This repositioning could provide support for gold for a few more days, but the effect is expected to diminish once the August delivery period starts.
Christian emphasized that COMEX is not facing a gold shortage, with registered and eligible stocks totaling approximately 27 million ounces. Silver is trading near $57.52 and continues to face resistance around $60. A breakout above current trendlines could push silver toward $64, whereas a decline below $55 could pave the way to $50 or even $45.
Christian contrasted the political and economic risks that underpin gold and silver with the weaker industrial fundamentals affecting platinum and palladium. The presentation also covered the typical summer slowdown in precious metals, the potential for stronger gold and silver prices from September through December, and the assessment that recent changes in China's gold market were a non-event rather than a dramatic market shock.