Gold Price Rises Amid Weak Jobs Print and Tariff Shift
The price of gold rose by 1.88% to $4,469.92 on Thursday, while silver increased by 1.42% to $66.24.
This move was largely driven by a weak ADP jobs print, which typically pushes up the value of safe-haven assets like gold and silver.
However, this only tells half the story, as five key indicators suggest that the rally may not be solely due to market participants' growing confidence in these metals.
One indicator is futures positioning, which shows funds continuing to build their net long positions in COMEX gold and silver futures. As of August 25, 2026, Managed Money held 144,747 gold futures contracts net long, while silver positioning stood at 14,073 contracts net long.
Another indicator is the shift in Indian gold demand towards Dubai due to a tariff quirk. According to BusinessToday, India imported $649.4 million of gold from the UAE in June 2026, up 175.2% from a year earlier. This is because the India-UAE trade pact provides a 1-percentage-point duty discount on gold entering through the UAE.
The odds of a Fed rate hike also vary depending on the source, ranging from 62% to 70%. Friday's payrolls report carries outsized weight in determining these odds, as it will provide the first hard read on whether leveraged money treated the volatility as a reason to add or run.