Gold Price Rises on Deutsche Bank Forecast of 12% Upside

The gold price surged back towards $4,200 on Wednesday, adding more than 3% after spending much of July trapped close to the $4,000 mark. According to Deutsche Bank, this marks a significant rebound for XAU/USD, which is now around 20% higher over 12 months, although still well below the early-2026 peak near $5,600.

Deutsche Bank believes that the correction may have already run far enough and that gold 'may have bottomed in its correction around USD 3,900/oz instead of extending toward the regression-implied USD 3,700/oz.' However, despite this optimistic view, the bank notes that gold remains expensive relative to broader commodity prices.

The bank's longer-run valuation comparisons still paint an uncomfortable picture, and while Deutsche Bank's statistical work suggests the current episode of explosive gold price behaviour began in August 2024 and is ongoing, its practical forecast implies a fair value near $4,700 by year-end. This would imply upside of roughly 12% from current levels.

The immediate picture remains choppy, but Deutsche Bank's view is clear enough: the correction towards $3,900 appears to have removed much of the excess without ending the wider bullish phase.