Gold Prices May Reach $5,000 by End-2026 Amid Softer Fed Outlook and India Demand
Gold prices are expected to move towards $4,800-5,000 per ounce by the end of 2026, according to Metals Focus. Harshal Barot, Senior Consultant-South Asia and Middle East at Metals Focus, believes that the current macro backdrop supports this prediction. He cites weaker US employment data and volatility in currency and bond markets as factors that have led to a softer Federal Reserve outlook.
The Fed's ability to raise interest rates aggressively is being questioned, and Barot does not see it as the beginning of a broader monetary tightening cycle. Even if the Fed raises rates once this year, he expects prices to start gaining from here on.
Barot also highlights seasonal demand from India, which could provide additional support for gold prices. He notes that Indian retailers and manufacturers have seen improved sentiment, with order volumes at industry events higher than last year. This pent-up demand is expected to improve in the second half of the year as prices stabilize and consumers return to the market.
Regarding silver, Barot expects it to remain in an uptrend but potentially underperform gold in the short term due to supply concerns. Silver import quotas available to Indian traders are below typical seasonal demand, limiting the amount of metal available in the domestic market. Premiums have already risen to around $2.50 an ounce.