Gold Rebounds in July but Still Struggles After Record Quarterly Collapse

Gold finished July up between 1.36% and 2.2%, its first monthly advance after four consecutive months of declines, but the damage from its peak remains severe. The metal traded roughly 27% below its all-time high of $5,595 to $5,602 on January 29, and a 16% quarterly collapse in the second quarter was its worst performance since 2013.

The monthly rebound came despite a brutal stretch, with gold's price action tied to currency mechanics rather than fundamentals. The Bank of Japan held its policy rate at 1%, but the yen resumed weakening after Thursday's intervention-driven spike, and the dollar firmed into month-end, causing gold to sell off.

The setup into August is the tightest gold has faced this cycle, with central banks posting a record second-quarter buying and Western investors pulling 45 tonnes out of physically backed funds. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped almost 7 basis points to 4.731%, and gold dropped approximately $20 per ounce for every one basis point rise in real yields since late February.