Gold Rebounds to Test $4,500 as Treasury Buybacks Raise Concerns

Gold has experienced an extraordinary run in 2026, marked by a powerful surge to record territory earlier this year. However, the precious metal suffered a steep correction as the US dollar strengthened and rate expectations shifted. The recovery began in August with another sharp rebound, pushing gold to test the $4,500-an-ounce area.

The key question is whether this rebound will develop into a sustainable breakout or be triggered by a stronger dollar and renewed monetary tightening. Rick Kanda, Managing Director at The Gold Bullion Company, discussed what would need to happen for prices to break sustainably above the $4,500 level in an interview with Invezz.

Kanda emphasized that falling real yields, along with a weaker US dollar and strong investment demand, are necessary for gold to break sustainably above $4,500. He also noted that concerns around fiscal policy and debt will support gold prices. The Treasury's expanded long-bond buybacks have raised questions about the sustainability of long-term Treasury yields and US fiscal policy.

Kanda warned that a stronger US dollar could trigger another major correction in gold, even with geopolitical uncertainty remaining elevated. Central banks' continued purchases of gold also remain an important support for prices. Kanda's base case is $4,800-$5,300 per ounce by the end of 2026.