Gold, Silver Prices Soar as Oil Falls, Rate Hike Bets Ease
Gold and silver prices rose sharply on Thursday after oil prices fell, reducing bets of an interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve. The MCX silver futures for September 2026 delivery increased by Rs 3,400 to Rs 2,42,999 per kg, while gold futures for October 2026 delivery gained Rs 1,285 to Rs 1,60,898 per 10 grams.
The international gold price rose over 5% last week after the US Treasury announced an expansion in purchases of older long-dated bonds, fueling concerns about dollar debasement and boosting demand for gold. Markets are closely watching remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole symposium for clues on the central bank's policy direction.
The probability of a US rate hike in September is priced at 36.5%, while there's a 72.7% chance of a hike by December, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The pause in annual U.S. inflation staying above the Fed's 2% target for the 65th consecutive month may add to the central bank's debate over interest rates.
Manoj Kumar Jain of Prithvi Finmart recommended that traders stay away from the market until there is clarity on rumors of a duty cut, but suggested long-term investors can accumulate gold and silver during market falls.