Gold Steadies Near $4,590 as Claims Dip and Fed Hike Risk Remains Alive
The price of gold has stabilized near $4,590 an ounce in early U.S. trading on Thursday, as claims dip and a firmer rates backdrop offset bargain hunting after Wednesday's post-PCE pullback.
Weekly jobless claims fell to 203,000 for the week ended August 22, below the 208,000 consensus estimate and down from a revised 207,000 the prior week. Continuing claims also fell to 1.778 million for the week ended August 15, against expectations for 1.790 million.
The latest market positioning is still being shaped by Wednesday's data stack, including July PCE inflation rising 0.2% on the month and 3.7% from a year earlier. The combined message left September pricing tilted toward a Fed hold, but kept a year-end hike live: futures implied a 36.5% probability of a 25-basis-point September hike and a 72.7% probability of at least one hike by December.
The Strait of Hormuz remains the main geopolitical transmission channel into oil, inflation expectations and defensive flows, with Qatar's prime minister heading to Iran to restart talks and Iran and Oman working on a framework to manage the strait after nearly six months of conflict left the route effectively closed to normal Gulf energy exports.