Gold Stuck in $4,000 Range as Fed Decision Looms

The price of gold has been stuck in a tight range for two weeks, unable to break either upwards or downwards. On Wednesday, COMEX gold opened at $4,020.90, down 0.4% from Tuesday's settlement, but then reversed hard to trade near $4,090 by 8:17 a.m. ET.

Futures moved first and harder, indicating a headline-driven repositioning rather than physical demand shift. The price of gold has now spent two weeks refusing to break in either direction, with the full weekly band ranging between $4,000 and $4,110, a $110 range on an asset that moved $1,600 in the first half of the year.

The Federal Reserve is set to announce its decision at 2:00 p.m. ET today, with the press conference at 2:30. The market expects a fifth consecutive hold, but estimates of hike probability vary between 30% and 38%. A hold is roughly two-thirds priced, while a hike is one-third priced.

The asymmetry favors the downside, with a hold delivering a muted relief rally and a hike taking out $4,000 immediately. The market will be watching how Kevin Warsh characterizes energy-driven inflation during the press conference, as his words have significant implications for gold's price.