Goldman Cuts Oil Forecast to $80 as Hormuz Crisis Looms

Goldman Sachs has reportedly revised its oil price forecast for 2027 to $80 per barrel, down from an earlier target. The bank cited stronger supply growth and ongoing demand weakness as contributing factors to this revision. In a separate note, Goldman warned that geopolitical developments could lead to sharp swings in oil prices.

The bank expects Brent crude prices to average around $90 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026, but noted that disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have been mitigated by weaker demand and pre-existing oversupply. However, it cautioned that prolonged export disruptions could lift Brent above $110 in late 2026, while an extended Hormuz disruption could send prices as high as $140 per barrel in 2027.

Goldman's outlook for oil prices is highly dependent on geopolitical developments, and the bank warned that a faster supply normalization and softer demand could push Brent to around $70 in late 2026 and $60 in 2027. Conversely, if export disruptions persist, Brent crude prices could surge above $110 in late 2026.

The bank's revised forecast is based on rising output from countries such as the United States, Brazil, Guyana, Venezuela, and the UAE, combined with structural demand shifts in China. Goldman noted that these factors are likely to keep downward pressure on oil prices over the long term despite ongoing geopolitical risks in the Middle East.