Goldman Flags $120 Oil Risk as Middle East Tensions Escalate
Goldman Sachs has issued a warning about the potential for oil prices to surge to $120 a barrel if attacks on Middle East shipping continue to intensify. The bank's commodities team flagged this risk in a recent note, citing the impact of disruptions on global supply chains.
In its base case scenario, Goldman is forecasting Brent crude to trade at around $85 per barrel by December 2026 and WTI crude to reach $80 per barrel. However, if Gulf output remains 4 million barrels a day below pre-war levels through 2027, Brent could potentially climb above $120.
Goldman's co-head of global commodities research, Daan Struyven, notes that the risk of shipping disruptions has increased significantly due to recent developments in the region. The bank is advising investors to express this risk through long positions in natural gas and diesel rather than crude itself.