Goldman Raises Q4 Oil Price Forecasts on Lower OECD Stocks

Goldman Sachs has increased its fourth-quarter oil price forecasts for Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude due to lower OECD stocks. The bank raised its expectations by $6 to $60 per barrel for Brent and by $4 to $56 per barrel for WTI, citing the decline in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) inventories.

The updated forecasts are based on a gradual easing of geopolitical tensions and a $5 decline in the fair value price. Goldman maintains its 2026 surplus forecast of 2.3 million barrels per day, assuming no major supply disruptions and no Russia-Ukraine peace.

The bank downgraded its 2026 supply outlook for Kazakhstan, Venezuela, Iran, and Iraq due to realized production misses, while upgrading supply expectations for the Americas and core OPEC countries with spare capacity.