Goldman Sachs Lowers Gold Forecast to $4,900 Amid Delayed Rate Cuts

Goldman Sachs has revised its gold forecast for 2026 downward to $4,900 per ounce. This is a cut of $500 from the bank's previous estimate of $5,400.

The revision comes as inflation remains high and the Federal Reserve appears unlikely to make significant rate cuts this year or next. The FedWatch tool shows markets pricing in a high probability of rates holding steady or rising through 2026, which is at odds with the current target range of 3.5% to 3.75%.

The bank points to delayed Federal Reserve rate cut timelines as the main driver behind the downgrade. Goldman Sachs commodity analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven note that the revision reflects a 'structurally constructive' view but with 'tactically cautious' near-term downside risk and medium-term upside risk.