Goldman Sachs Raises Oil Price Forecast Amid Persistent Middle East Disruptions

Goldman Sachs has drastically revised its oil price forecast for 2026 and 2027, citing continued risk of shipping disruptions in the Middle East as a major contributor. The investment bank's commodities research team led by Daan Struyven now predicts Brent crude futures will average $85 per barrel (approximately NT$2,700) in December 2026, up from its previous forecast of $80 per barrel.

For 2027, Goldman Sachs raised its average Brent crude forecast from $75 to $80 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was increased from $70 to $75. The year-end forecast for Brent crude has also been adjusted upward, jumping from $80 to $90 per barrel.

The forecast adjustment reflects the likelihood of continued disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. Struyven noted that OECD commercial onshore oil inventories have shown unexpected resilience since the outbreak of war, with only a modest drawdown from pre-war levels.

Goldman Sachs estimates that approximately 3.8 million barrels per day of effective pipeline capacity bypassing the Strait of Hormuz will be added by the end of 2027. However, Struyven explicitly warned in the report that overall risks remain significantly skewed to the upside, particularly in the near term.

Goldman Sachs believes the most likely catalyst for triggering a surge in oil prices is further escalation of attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. If Persian Gulf average daily production falls 4 million barrels below pre-war levels, Brent crude could surge past $120 per barrel (approximately NT$3,800).