Goldman Sachs Reaffirms Brent Forecast Amid Global Oil Market Uncertainty
Goldman Sachs has reaffirmed its Brent crude forecast of $80 per barrel for the fourth quarter of 2026, citing lower Middle East supply as a supporting factor. The investment bank expects oil prices to remain stable through July and August due to global inventory drawdowns, seasonal summer travel demand, and reduced strategic petroleum reserve releases by OECD countries.
The bank's forecast reflects a balance between lower Middle East output in the second half of the year and stronger-than-expected regional production in June, as well as weaker demand in China, South Korea, and the Middle East. Goldman Sachs also expects Brent prices to average $75 per barrel in 2027, assuming the Strait of Hormuz remains open.
However, the bank acknowledges two-sided risks to its forecast, including the possibility of Brent exceeding $120 per barrel by the fourth quarter of 2026 and averaging $100 in 2027 if Hormuz is disrupted. Conversely, prices could fall to the low $60s by end-2027 if supply exceeds expectations and demand losses prove more persistent.
Oil prices have been rising due to recent events, including Yemen's Houthis targeting oil tankers in the Red Sea and the United States launching new strikes on Iran.