Goldman Sachs Sticks with $80 Brent Forecast Despite Global Surplus

Goldman Sachs has reaffirmed its Brent crude forecast of $80 per barrel for the fourth quarter of 2026, citing lower Middle East supply as a key factor in supporting oil prices. The investment bank also expects global inventories to continue drawing down through July and August due to increased demand from seasonal summer travel and reduced strategic petroleum reserve releases.

The bank's forecast reflects a balance between the positive impact of reduced Middle East production and the negative effects of stronger-than-expected output in June and weaker demand in China, South Korea, and the Middle East. Goldman Sachs also noted that US shale supply is sensitive to price levels and that supply disruptions could drive prices even higher.

The bank's view remains unchanged despite a projected 2027 surplus of 3.2 million barrels per day, with Brent expected to average $75 per barrel in 2027. However, Goldman Sachs also highlighted the possibility of two-sided risks to its forecast, with Brent potentially exceeding $120 by year-end if Hormuz is disrupted.