Goldman Sees Brent at $85 as Hormuz Disruptions Persist

Oil prices held steady near six-week highs on Tuesday due to continued geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz. The Brent benchmark traded at approximately $97.5 a barrel in Asian hours, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was near $92.9.

The market remains focused on the physical movement of oil through the strait, rather than just military headlines. Data from Kpler showed only seven commodity vessels transited the strait on Monday, down from eight on Sunday and a significant drop from the average 10 ships per day over the past 10 days.

Iran has threatened to target energy infrastructure across the Gulf if the US launches further attacks. The country is also discussing a shipping arrangement with Oman, but the details remain uncertain.

The supply strain is not limited to the Middle East, as commercial crude inventories in the US fell by 4.5 million barrels to 424.5 million in the week through August 28. Gasoline stocks dropped to 205.7 million barrels, around 6% below their five-year seasonal average.

Goldman Sachs has raised its December 2026 forecasts for Brent and WTI crude prices by $5 a barrel each to $85 and $80 respectively, reflecting expectations that Middle East shipping disruptions could persist.