Goldman Sees Brent at $85 Despite Ongoing Hormuz Disruptions
Oil prices held steady near six-week highs on Tuesday due to ongoing tensions in the Middle East. Brent crude traded around $97.5 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was near $92.9.
The market is focused on the physical movement of commodities through the Strait of Hormuz, rather than just military headlines. Data from Kpler showed that only seven vessels transited the strait on Monday, down from eight on Sunday and the lowest average since May.
Iran has threatened to target energy infrastructure across the Gulf if the US launches further attacks, while also discussing a shipping arrangement with Oman. However, the details of this agreement remain uncertain and its impact on commercial access to Hormuz is unclear.
The supply strain is not limited to the Middle East, as US Energy Information Administration data showed that commercial crude inventories fell 4.5 million barrels to 424.5 million in the week through August 28. Gasoline stocks dropped to 205.7 million barrels, around 6% below their five-year seasonal average.
Goldman Sachs has raised its December 2026 forecasts by $5 a barrel to $85 for Brent and $80 for WTI, reflecting expectations that Middle East shipping disruptions could persist.