Goldman Trims Oil Price Outlook on Softer Demand
Goldman Sachs has tempered its oil price outlook for 2026 due to softer demand and easing supply disruptions. The bank maintained its forecasts of $83 a barrel for Brent crude and $78 a barrel for WTI crude, assuming oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz normalize by mid-May.
The Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for about 20% of global oil supplies, has seen reduced flows due to geopolitical tensions. However, Goldman Sachs warns that downside risks have increased if Persian Gulf supply recovers more quickly than expected, aided by lower-than-anticipated production shut-ins and ample regional storage capacity.
Preliminary estimates suggest that global demand losses in early 2026 have been larger than previous oil price spikes in 2011 and 2022. Weakness in oil demand has been most evident in emerging markets in Asia and Africa, where consumption is more sensitive to prices.