Gold's 'Explosive' Rally Phase Remains Ongoing, Predicted Year-End Price Range $4700-5100

Deutsche Bank's latest research report suggests that gold's 'explosive' rally phase remains ongoing, with central bank holdings and ETF capital inflows driving demand. According to Michael Hsueh, a commodity strategist at Deutsche Bank, the fifth round of this phase since 1979 is still in effect.

The report points out that central banks have increased their gold purchases, with a record high in real US dollar terms reached in the first quarter of 2026. Meanwhile, ETF capital inflows have turned positive again, with a net inflow of 1.5 million ounces over the past 30 days.

Deutsche Bank's long-term pricing model takes into account the expansion of US government debt as its core variable, supplemented by the US dollar exchange rate and other factors. The model predicts a year-end gold price range of $4700-5100 per ounce, with the current price having converged to fair value.