Gold's July Rebound Hides the Damage of Its Worst Quarterly Loss Since 2013
Gold's July rebound masked the severe damage from its 16% quarterly collapse. While gold finished July up between 1.36% and 2.2%, depending on the measurement, it fell short of expectations after four consecutive months of declines.
The precious metal's all-time high was reached at $5,595 to $5,602 on January 29, but it now trades roughly 27% below that peak. The 52-week range runs from $3,273.77 to $5,595.46.
Gold's price action in July was heavily influenced by currency mechanics rather than gold fundamentals. The Bank of Japan held its policy rate at 1%, and the yen resumed weakening after Thursday's intervention-driven spike, which led to a dollar firming into month-end.
Gold sells off on dollar strength with metronomic reliability, and it did again in Friday's session. The rest of the precious complex followed suit, with COMEX falling 1.71%, the gold trust dropping 2.04%, and the silver falling 3.31%.
The setup into August is particularly challenging for gold, as central banks just posted a record second-quarter buying, while Western investors pulled 45 tonnes out of physically backed funds. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped almost 7 basis points to 4.731%, and the sensitivity has been quantified: gold has dropped approximately $20 per ounce for every one basis point rise in 10-year real yields since late February.
Chair Kevin Warsh said, 'The data suggest that inflation is not on track back to 2%.'