Grain Market Faces Crisis as War, Drought, and Trade Disputes Bite

The global grain market is facing significant challenges due to war, drought, and heat. The Black Sea, which is a vital route for wheat trade, has been disrupted by Russia's war against Ukraine. This conflict has resulted in reduced harvests, with the US expecting its worst wheat harvest in half a century.

According to the European trade group Coceral, the wheat harvest in Europe and the UK in 2026 is forecasted to be lower than the previous year. The current problem lies not in the availability of grain, but in its affordability, as noted by Joseph Glauber, an economist at the International Food Policy Research Institute.

Global wheat stocks remain substantial following a good 2025 harvest, but FAO economist Monika Tothova warned that the combination of weather-related issues, export restrictions via the Black Sea, and disruptions to key trade routes could have consequences extending far beyond wheat production itself.