Grain Markets on Edge as Ukraine Talks and WASDE Report Loom
The grain markets are on edge as the outcome of Ukraine talks and this week's WASDE report hangs in the balance. Wheat prices fell last week due to growing optimism around a potential peace agreement, pulling the broader grains complex lower. The market expects a reduction in US corn yields from the August forecast of 180.7 bushels per acre, with estimates ranging from 173.2 to 179 bushels per acre.
A yield below 178 bushels per acre could provide further price support, while progress on Black Sea exports would likely pressure grain markets. Turkey has announced its plan for the safe passage of grain via the Black Sea and is in contact with both Russia and Ukraine. US representatives also traveled to Russia over the weekend to broker a peace agreement.
US corn condition remains 57% good or excellent, unchanged week-on-week and versus last year's 69%. Corn harvesting in Argentina is complete at 92.5%, while planting for the new crop has started with 1.5% completion. Exports out of Russia continue to be slow, with August exports estimated at 2 million tonnes versus 4.5 million tonnes last year.