Grain Markets React to USDA Estimates: Soybeans Rise, Wheat Falls

USDA estimates have had a mixed impact on US grains and oilseeds. Soybeans saw some losses from Friday recover, thanks in part to rising crude oil prices.

The USDA reported that 672,750 tonnes of soybeans were exported during the week ended Sept. 10, which is 44.8% more than the previous week but 18.2% less than the same week last year. Exports for the marketing year so far have been 914,826 tonnes, 15.8% lower than last year.

The USDA also reported outstanding sales of US soybeans to China for 2026-27 as of Sept. 3 at 8.98 million tonnes, which accounts for 36% of the White House's target of 25 million. AgRural estimated that the 2026-27 soybean crop in Brazil was 0.4% planted as of Sept. 10.

Corn made small gains on Monday despite slightly bearish projections from the USDA on Friday. The USDA reported 1.525 million tonnes of corn were exported, which is down 8.9% from the previous week and 0.5% from the same week last year. Marketing year shipments so far have been 2.174 million tonnes, 0.5% below last year.

Brazil's first corn crop was 22% planted as of Sept. 10, ahead of last year's pace of 17%. APK-Inform estimated the Ukrainian corn crop at 32.3 million tonnes for 2026-27, raising its estimate by 2.5 million from the previous one.

The wheat market saw prices drop due to projected global ending stocks being greater than anticipated. The USDA reported 456,720 tonnes of wheat were exported last week, down 5.9% from the week before and 39.8% less than the same time last year. Marketing year shipments have been 5.676 million tonnes, 27.8% below last year.

The Ukrainian wheat crop was projected at 25 million tonnes for 2026-27, up 2.4 million from the previous estimate. Wheat exports were estimated at 10.5 million tonnes for the marketing year.