Grain Prices Soar as Black Sea Attacks Disrupt Ukraine and Russian Exports

Systematic attacks on port infrastructure and civilian vessels in the Black and Azov seas have severely disrupted grain exports from Ukraine and Russia, two of the region's largest suppliers of wheat, barley, and corn. The effects are already visible: Prices are rising, importers are looking for alternatives, and farmers in both countries face growing inventories and falling domestic prices.

Ukraine is exporting only about one-third of its potential volume of grains and oilseeds, while Russian farmers are also losing access to major export routes after attacks on the port of Novorossiysk. The disruption is already affecting the global grain market. Ukrainian Agrarian Policy Minister Taras Vysotskyi said exports at 31% of needed level during the first 18 days of August.

The ministry's updated data confirm that shipments remain weak, according to Oleksii Yeromin, an analyst at Argus Media Ukraine. He calculated that Ukraine exported an average of just 29,000 metric tons a day during the first 18 days of August, which is three times less than in August 2025.

Prices are slowly rising due to the shortage, with wheat prices increasing by 8% to $258 per metric ton. Analysts and the Agrarian Policy Ministry remain cautious in their price forecasts, estimating potential losses in export revenue and shipment volumes. Ukraine could lose $10 billion in revenue over the season, while Russian grain exports face even greater disruption.