Grain Prices Supported by Middle East Conflict and Black Sea Shipping Concerns
The war in the Middle East and concerns about Black Sea shipping due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine have supported grain, oilseed, and pulse prices since January 2026.
This has led to a stronger-than-expected global crop demand, which in turn has lifted prices for Canadian producers. However, elevated input costs, trade uncertainty, and market access risks continue to shape profitability expectations for the year ahead.
Historical pricing patterns can help producers make informed grain marketing decisions amid market uncertainty. Global demand has been strong, with commodity prices increasing by $45 per tonne for both canola and soybeans since January projections. The stronger price environment has lifted the 2026-27 outlook, with prices now forecast to average above those of the crop year just ended.
The seasonal pattern of grain prices received is highly seasonal, with most producers aiming to achieve the marketing year average price. By examining historical seasonality, producers can make informed decisions about when to sell their crops. For example, canola prices often face pressure in September as new-crop supplies move into the system.
In Ontario, corn prices tend to weaken during harvest and commercial drying capacity is a major factor in determining prices. Soybean prices are typically lowest at harvest before strengthening steadily into the following year. The marketing year index shows that selling crops at several points during the year can reduce the risk of selling below the marketing year average.