Grain Prices Surge on Poorer-than-Expected Maize Crop Prospects

Grain prices have surged in recent weeks following the US Pro Farmer crop tour. The UK feed wheat futures price lifted to £206.55/t on Nov-26. According to the AHDB, the tour reported poorer-than-expected potential for maize crops, forecasting a 10% decrease from last year's record at 389.8 Mt, with yields down by 7%. This forecast is more severe than the USDA's prediction of a 6% year-on-year fall in production.

The International Grains Council (IGC) has also cut its global wheat production forecast for 2026/27 by 4.3 Mt to 816.7 Mt, citing poorer prospects in Europe due to sustained heat this summer. The global crop is now expected to be 27.5 Mt below last season.

The outlook for soya beans was more positive, with the Pro Farmer report forecasting US production at 124.4 Mt, above the USDA's recent forecast. This helped push Paris Nov 26 oilseed futures down to €522.00/t, although the company cautioned that late-season weather will still influence final crop size.