Grains Rise as Weather Uncertainties Mount
Cyclist Doug Tenney noticed something new every time he rode his bike near his home in Fairfield County, Ohio. The early morning rides gave him a chance to see scenes he'd never experienced before, like barns with cupolas or hay hooks on the roofline.
As a farmer and trader, Tenney has been paying attention to the markets lately. He believes it would take either high demand or weather concerns to push grains higher. And that's exactly what happened since late June, with corn, soybeans, and wheat prices rising due to inconsistent weather across the Corn Belt.
The USDA Weekly Crop Progress Report showed improving crop ratings for both corn and soybeans in July 2026 compared to July 2025. However, this year's weather is not ideal for huge yields seen in 2025. The southern United States is experiencing a 100-year drought, while Illinois and Iowa are dealing with above-normal temperatures during pollination.
China has been buying U.S. soybeans aggressively, purchasing at least five new crop boats or 10 million bushels in recent weeks. They have an agreement to buy 25 million tons of U.S. soybeans for delivery in 2026. The low weekly corn usage number for ethanol production also suggests that the current marketing year's target of 5.550 billion bushels could be too high.
El Niño is intensifying across South America, bringing above-average temperatures and below-normal rains. This may lead to a drop in Australia's wheat production. With these weather uncertainties expected to continue into September, price volatility and demand uncertainty are at extreme levels.