Guolian Securities: Gold's Rebound May Be Just a 'False Rally'
Guolian Securities recently issued a research note suggesting that gold and silver's recent rebound may be a 'false rally.' According to the report, this rebound is the result of capital rotation following the collapse of tech stock momentum.
The bank notes that while spot gold prices have rebounded 2.6% since July 20, and Comex speculative positioning has shown some recovery, gold has yet to break out of its downward channel.
Guolian Securities expects a choppy recovery in the second half of the year, with allocation value outweighing trend-trading value. The bank maintains a year-end target range of $4,300-$4,500 per ounce for gold, but notes that further upside requires powerful catalysts such as intensifying AI bubble concerns or renewed worries over US dollar creditworthiness.
The report emphasizes that investors should maintain balanced allocations and not hold overly high expectations for sharp short-term gains.