Hindalco's Aluminium Price Forecast: $3200-$3400 per Tonne This Year
Hindalco MD Satish Pai sees aluminium prices staying firm at $3,200-$3,400 per tonne this year due to Middle East supply disruptions. This will keep Hindalco's upstream aluminium earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) per tonne around $2,000 for the rest of the year.
Pai expects downstream volumes to pick up in the coming quarters. He also sees copper business delivering stronger performance in Q2FY27 on higher volumes and byproduct prices, particularly sulphuric acid. For Novelis, Pai predicts steady improvement over the next three quarters, with Oswego reaching full run rate in Q2 and Bay Minette driving a bigger EBITDA ramp-up in FY28.
Hindalco's upstream aluminium EBITDA rose to ₹7,390 crore in Q1FY27 from ₹4,080 crore a year ago. Downstream aluminium EBITDA increased to ₹298 crore from ₹229 crore. Copper EBITDA rose to ₹918 crore from ₹673 crore.
Hindalco's net debt-to-EBITDA is expected to come down substantially by Q4FY27 as cash flows improve in Novelis and the India business looks solid.