Hormuz Crisis Permanently Alters Shape of Global Trade

The Persian Gulf has been forever changed by Trump's war against Iran, leading to a frantic scramble for new ways to move Middle East oil. In a recent interview, Samriddhi Vij, an associate fellow in geopolitics at the Dubai-based Observer Research Foundation Middle East (ORFME), said that this is not just a shipping disruption but a structural recalibration in global trade.

Before the war, nearly a quarter of worldwide oil and gas shipments passed through the Strait of Hormuz. Eighty percent of those shipments were bound for Asia, mostly China, Japan, and India. Iran's efforts to exert sovereignty over the waterway as a response to the attack have created logistical and philosophical dilemmas for countries in the region.

The UAE's special envoy for business and philanthropy, Badr Jafar, wrote in the Financial Times that Iran's actions have created an atmosphere where Gulf states would never return to a posture of strategic dependence on a narrow strait controlled by an unpredictable neighbor.

However, finding alternative routes is much harder than expected. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are the only countries that have managed to find functioning alternative routes for oil exports that avoid the Strait of Hormuz.