Hormuz Crossings Rebound Fades as Oil Remains Range-Bound
The Strait of Hormuz saw a brief rebound in vessel crossings on July 28-29 after weeks of decline, but it didn't last. The number of commodity-related transits through the strait had fallen from around 33 per day to as low as 4 since Iran's renewed attacks on commercial vessels on July 7. However, over the past two days, a Qatari LNG carrier exited the Gulf for the first time in weeks, and crossings are picking up slightly.
Brent crude prices have been more influenced by geopolitical headlines than actual flow data since April. Kpler's analysis suggests that oil prices will stay range-bound with $110 as the upside cap, contingent on China staying out of the buying market.
Total crossings through Bab el-Mandeb have fallen by around 35% since the Houthis announced a targeted blockade against Saudi-linked shipping, and some volume lost from Hormuz is not finding another route. Around 2-2.5 million barrels per day will need to reroute northwards towards Egypt once August-loaded cargoes are committed.