Hormuz Disruptions Send Oil Prices Soaring Amid Volatility
The ongoing conflict in West Asia has caused disruptions to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a sharp drawdown in global inventories. As a result, crude oil prices are likely to remain elevated in the near term, with Brent crude averaging around $85 a barrel in the third quarter of 2026.
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects global oil inventories to decline by an average 4.2 million barrels per day between April and June, and by another 3.8 million b/d on average in Q3-CY26. Prices are expected to ease once traffic through the Strait of Hormuz recovers and 'shut-in' oil production starts coming back.
Rabobank International has a more bullish outlook, raising its Brent forecast to $90/bbl for both the third and fourth quarters of 2026. They also expect prices to remain volatile in the months ahead, with $70-$75/bbl as the lower-end support zone and $95-$100 forming the upper end of the range.