Hormuz Leverage Weakens as Iran's Grip on Oil Exports Fades
The situation around the Strait of Hormuz remains volatile, but Iran's leverage has weakened. The Houthis in Yemen have taken control of coastal areas near the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, and Iranian-backed forces have gained ground in their push to seize Mokha near the southern end of the Red Sea.
Nearly 6-9 million barrels of oil are being routed through the strait with the help of the US Navy. Saudi crude exports are trending higher after a significant pickup from the Kingdom's Eastern terminals, as exporters have learned to move barrels through a disrupted Hormuz.
The number of oil tankers stuck in the region has fallen 23 per cent week-on-week to 76.39 million bbl in the week ended September 11, the lowest in a year. This suggests that Iran's grip on the situation is loosening, but its own exports have dropped sharply due to the US blockade.
The global energy market remains tight, with OPEC forecasting a still-expanding oil market. World oil demand is expected to rise by 0.4 mbpd in 2026 to 105.84 mbpd, and by 2.4 mbpd in 2027 to reach 108.2 mbpd.