Hormuz Reopening May Not Sufficiently Restore Middle East Gas Supplies

The global gas market is facing a prolonged and difficult recovery from the conflict in the Middle East. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned that even the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would not immediately restore Middle East gas supplies to pre-war conditions.

According to IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol, the energy system has been fundamentally disrupted by months of conflict, damage to infrastructure, and interruptions to liquefied natural gas shipments from the Gulf. The agency estimates that prolonged disruption through the Strait of Hormuz could leave international gas markets under pressure well beyond the immediate conflict.

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most important energy corridors. Before the conflict, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates exported large volumes of LNG through the waterway. The effective closure of the strait in March removed close to 20% of global LNG supply from the market at the height of the disruption.

The IEA estimates that Middle East disruptions and damage to LNG facilities could result in about 120 billion cubic metres of cumulative lost LNG supply between 2026 and 2030. The agency also warns that reopening Hormuz alone would not immediately solve the problem, as damaged facilities, delayed projects, lower regional production, and depleted inventories would continue to restrict supply.