Hormuz Reopening Won't Restore Qatari LNG Exports to Pre-War Levels

Qatari and UAE liquefied natural gas exports may not return to normal even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, according to executives from Shell, Eni, and ExxonMobil. About 17% of Qatar's LNG capacity is offline after Iranian strikes damaged two export trains, removing 12.8 million tonnes a year from the market.

QatarEnergy has said repairs will take three to five years, meaning that even with safe passage through the strait, restoring access to normal supplies could take months or years. The Strait of Hormuz is the only outlet for Qatari and Emirati LNG to international markets, with no alternative pipeline or seaborne routes.

LNG tankers have been slow to return to the Gulf due to high war-risk insurance costs and security concerns. Even with safe passage, restoring regular marine flows will take time.

Shell's president of integrated gas, Cederic Cremers, said that reopening the strait is not the same as restoration. 'First of all, you have reopening, and then you have restoration. Those are still two very different things,' he stated.