Hormuz Shipping Disruptions Keep Oil Prices Above $90

Oil prices rose on Monday as renewed US-Iran tensions pushed supply risks back to the centre of the market. The price reaction is being driven less by geopolitical headlines alone and more by evidence that shipping through Hormuz remains constrained.

Kpler data showed an average of about 10 commodity vessels a day crossed the strait over the past 10 days, the lowest level since May. Just two vessels transited on Saturday and six on Sunday. That matters because Hormuz normally handles roughly a fifth of global oil supply.

A sustained improvement in Hormuz traffic could strip some risk premium from Brent and WTI. Further attacks or another drop in vessel flows would instead keep Brent close to the $100 threshold and WTI firmly above $90.