Hormuz Strait Oil Flows Rebound to Two-Thirds of Pre-War Levels

Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have bounced back to around two-thirds of pre-war levels, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. The analysts, including Daan Struyven and Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby, stated in a recent note that total exports of crude and oil products passing through the waterway have climbed to 15 million to 16 million barrels a day.

This is still 7-8 million barrels below pre-conflict levels, but significantly higher than the trough of 5 million to 6 million barrels per day recorded in March. The rise in dark crossings by specialized shippers and an increase in ship-to-ship transfers show that producers and shippers are adapting to the Mideast conflict.

The adaptation has resulted in higher dark flows, which could moderate the upside to crude oil prices even if Mideast disruptions last longer. Global crude prices have dropped to around $89 a barrel from over $120 in April.