Hormuz Strait Still Trapped Six Months After Start of Operation Epic Fury

Six months after the start of Operation Epic Fury, the Strait of Hormuz has not recovered to even a quarter of its pre-war level. Before the conflict, it carried around 20 million barrels a day of crude oil. The alternative route used by Gulf producers, the Red Sea, is now under pressure too.

The war has disrupted global supply significantly, with the International Energy Agency calling it the biggest on record. At its peak, global supply fell by about 12 million bpd, more than twice the loss during the 1979 Iranian revolution. Unlike previous oil shocks, this conflict hit several commodities at once, disrupting oil, refined products, gas, and fertiliser supplies.

The UAE has left Opec and is expanding exports outside the Gulf, while Saudi Arabia is increasingly relying on pipelines and longer shipping routes. The conflict has also raised new questions in Gulf capitals about the reliability of US security guarantees.