Hormuz Tanker Traffic Slows as Oil Flows Surge

Tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has slowed down significantly this week, despite oil flows increasing according to some estimates. Preliminary data from Kpler shows that only seven commodity vessels traversed the waterway on Thursday, which is below the ten-day average of 15 vessels per day.

This comes as a surprise, given that oil flows in Hormuz are reportedly on the rise, with traders estimating that between 6 and 8 million barrels of oil are being moved out of the chokepoint daily. Goldman Sachs has also echoed this estimate, saying that oil flows out of Hormuz have returned to two-thirds of their pre-war levels.

However, ING's commodity analysts believe that oil markets are adapting to the new reality of a shut-down Hormuz, with more Persian Gulf producers selling their crude outside the Strait. This has led to upward pressure on crude oil prices, despite waning hopes for a resumption in peace talks between Tehran and Washington.

Another factor that could impact oil prices is Venezuela's potential exit from OPEC, which would mean higher production but also requires significant time to reverse years of decline.